What Is This?

Trump is the only person on Earth who can move global markets with a single social media post. This project applies brute-force computation to find statistically significant patterns between his posting behavior and stock market movements.

Not gut feeling. Not opinion. Pure data.

• 7,400+ Truth Social posts analyzed (3 independent sources, cross-verified)
• 31.5 million model combinations tested via brute-force search
• 551 surviving rules that passed train/test validation
• 61.3% hit rate across 566 verified predictions (z=5.39, p<0.05)
• Closed-loop system: predict → verify → learn → evolve → repeat daily

Key Discoveries

| # | Finding | Evidence | Impact | |---|---------|----------|--------| | 1 | Pre-market RELIEF = strongest buy signal | Apr 9, 2025: S&P +9.52% | Avg +1.12% same-day | | 2 | TARIFF→SHORT is 70% wrong | Circuit breaker analysis | Auto-reversed to LONG | | 3 | China signals hidden on Truth Social only | 203 TS posts / 0 on X | 1.5x weight boost | | 4 | Truth Social publishes 6.2h before X | 38/39 posts matched | 6-hour trading window | | 5 | Pure tariff day = most dangerous | Apr 3: -4.84%, Apr 4: -5.97% | Avg -1.057% | | 6 | 4 signals combo = most profitable | 12 occurrences, 66.7% up | Avg +2.792% | | 7 | Silence = 80% bullish | Zero-post days analysis | Avg +0.409% | | 8 | Late-night tariff tweets = anti-indicator | 62% wrong → reverse = 62% right | Auto-inverted |

System Architecture

Trump posts on Truth Social
         │
         ▼ (detected every 5 min)
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Real-Time Engine                                    │
│  Detect → Classify signals → Dual-platform boost →   │
│  Event pattern check → Snapshot PM + S&P 500 →       │
│  Predict → Track at 1h/3h/6h → Verify               │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                          │
┌─────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┐
│  Daily Pipeline (11 steps)                           │
│  Fetch → Analyze → Run 551 rules → Predict →         │
│  Verify → Circuit Breaker → Prediction Market check → │
│  Learn (promote/demote/eliminate) →                   │
│  Evolve (crossover/mutation/distill) →                │
│  AI Briefing → Sync to GitHub                        │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                          │
┌─────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┐
│  Three Brains                                        │
│  🧠 Opus — deep causal analysis                      │
│  🧬 Evolver — breeds new rules from survivors        │
│  🔒 Circuit Breaker — stops if system degrades       │
└─────────────────────────┬───────────────────────────┘
                          │
┌─────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┐
│  Output                                              │
│  📊 Dashboard  💬 Chatbot  📡 API  💻 CLI  🤖 MCP   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Model Leaderboard

11 named strategy models, ranked by verified performance:

| # | Model | Strategy | Hit Rate | Avg Return | Trades | |---|-------|----------|----------|------------|--------| | 🥇 | A3 | Pre-market RELIEF → same-day surge | 72.7% | +1.206% | 11 | | 🥈 | D3 | Post volume spike → panic bottom | 70.2% | +0.306% | 47 | | 🥉 | D2 | Signature switch → formal statement | 70.0% | +0.472% | 80 | | 4 | B3 | Pre-market ACTION + positive mood → rise | 66.7% | +0.199% | 33 | | 5 | C1 | Burst posting → long silence → go long | 65.3% | +0.145% | 176 | | 6 | B1 | 3 signals combo → buy 3 days | 64.7% | +0.597% | 17 | | 7 | B2 | 3-day tariff streak → Deal pivot | 57.9% | +0.721% | 19 | | 8 | A1 | Tariff during market hours → next-day drop | 56.5% | -0.758% | 23 | | ⚠️ | A2 | DEAL signal → next-day rise | 52.2% | +0.029% | 90 | | ⚠️ | C2 | Market brag → short-term top | 45.0% | +0.105% | 60 | | 🗑️ | C3 | Late-night tariff → gap open (anti-indicator) | 37.5% | -0.414% | 8 |

Dual-Platform Intelligence (Truth Social vs X)

| Finding | Data | Trading Implication | |---------|------|---------------------| | China = 100% hidden from X | 203 TS posts / 0 X posts | China signals are more authentic | | TS publishes 6.2h before X | 38/39 posts matched | 6-hour arbitrage window | | X posting correlates with market | r=0.35 | He uses X when confident | | X day returns 7x higher | +0.252% vs +0.037% | X appearance = confirmation signal |

Prediction Markets Integration

Live tracking of Trump-related prediction markets via Polymarket:

• 316+ active Trump markets tracked in real-time
• Dual-track snapshots: Polymarket prices + S&P 500 simultaneously
• Signal → market correlation analysis
• Kalshi cross-platform spread detection

Live Dashboard

→ trumpcode.washinmura.jp

Real-time dashboard showing:

• Latest Trump posts with signal analysis
• Today's signals and market consensus
• Live Polymarket Trump markets
• Model rankings with performance bars
• 30-second auto-refresh

API Endpoints

Base URL: https://trumpcode.washinmura.jp

| Endpoint | Description | |----------|-------------| | GET /api/dashboard | All data in one call | | GET /api/signals | Latest signals + 7-day history | | GET /api/models | Model performance rankings | | GET /api/status | System health summary | | GET /api/recent-posts | Latest 20 Trump posts + signal analysis | | GET /api/polymarket-trump | Live Trump prediction markets (316+) | | GET /api/playbook | Three playbooks (hedge/position/pump) | | GET /api/insights | Crowd-sourced trading insights | | GET /api/data | Downloadable dataset catalog | | GET /api/data/{file} | Download raw data files | | POST /api/chat | AI chatbot (Gemini Flash) |

Open Data

All data is 100% public. Clone and explore:

| File | Description | Updated | |------|-------------|---------| | trump_posts_all.json | Full Truth Social archive (44,000+ posts) | Daily | | trump_posts_lite.json | Posts with signals pre-tagged | Daily | | x_posts_full.json | X (Twitter) full archive | Daily | | predictions_log.json | 566 verified predictions with outcomes | Daily | | surviving_rules.json | 551 active rules (brute-force + evolved) | Daily | | daily_report.json | Daily trilingual report | Daily | | trump_playbook.json | Three playbooks (hedge/position/pump) | Weekly | | signal_confidence.json | Signal confidence scores (auto-adjusted) | Daily | | opus_analysis.json | Claude Opus deep analysis | On demand | | learning_report.json | Learning engine report | Daily | | evolution_log.json | Rule evolution log (crossover/mutation) | Daily | | circuit_breaker_state.json | System health + error analysis | Daily | | daily_features.json | 384 features × 414 trading days | Daily | | market_SP500.json | S&P 500 OHLC history | Daily |

Quick Start

# Clone
git clone https://github.com/sstklen/trump-code.git
cd trump-code
pip install -r requirements.txt
Check today's signals
python3 trump_code_cli.py signals
Run any of the 12 analyses
python3 analysis_06_market.py    # Posts vs S&P 500 correlation
python3 analysis_09_combo_score.py  # Multi-signal combo scoring
Run brute-force model search (~25 min)
python3 overnight_search.py
Start real-time monitor
python3 realtime_loop.py
Start web dashboard + chatbot
export GEMINI_KEYS="key1,key2,key3"
python3 chatbot_server.py
→ http://localhost:8888

CLI Commands

python3 trump_code_cli.py signals    # Today's detected signals
python3 trump_code_cli.py models     # Model performance leaderboard
python3 trump_code_cli.py predict    # LONG/SHORT consensus
python3 trump_code_cli.py arbitrage  # Prediction market opportunities
python3 trump_code_cli.py health     # System health check
python3 trump_code_cli.py report     # Full daily report
python3 trump_code_cli.py json       # All data as JSON

MCP Server (for Claude Code / Cursor)

Add to ~/.claude/settings.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "trump-code": {
      "command": "python3",
      "args": ["/path/to/trump-code/mcp_server.py"]
    }
  }
}

9 tools: signals, models, predict, arbitrage, health, events, dual_platform, crowd, full_report

Contributing

We need the world's eyes on this. One team can't decode Trump alone.

Ways to Help

1. Propose new features — Open an issue: what to track, why it matters, how to detect it
2. Run your own analysis — Clone the data, find patterns, submit a PR
3. Verify predictions — Check daily_report.json against actual market closes
4. Share trading logic — Use the chatbot to share insights (best ones get absorbed)

Ideas We Haven't Tried

| Idea | Difficulty | |------|-----------| | Correlate with Bitcoin/Gold/Oil | Easy | | Analyze image/video posts | Medium | | Track which accounts he retweets before big moves | Easy | | Cross-reference with his public schedule | Medium | | Detect if posts are written by him vs staff | Hard | | Analyze deleted posts and edit history | Medium |

File Structure

trump-code/
├── public/insights.html          # Dashboard (single-file, no build)
├── chatbot_server.py             # Web server + all API endpoints
├── realtime_loop.py              # Real-time monitor (every 5 min)
├── daily_pipeline.py             # Daily pipeline (11 steps)
├── learning_engine.py            # Promote/demote/eliminate rules
├── rule_evolver.py               # Crossover/mutation/distill
├── circuit_breaker.py            # System health + auto-pause
├── event_detector.py             # Multi-day event patterns
├── dual_platform_signal.py       # Truth Social vs X analysis
├── polymarket_client.py          # Polymarket API client
├── kalshi_client.py              # Kalshi API client
├── arbitrage_engine.py           # Cross-platform arbitrage
├── mcp_server.py                 # MCP server (9 tools)
├── trump_code_cli.py             # CLI interface
├── trump_monitor.py              # Post monitor
├── analysis_01_caps.py           # CAPS code analysis
├── analysis_02_timing.py         # Posting time patterns
├── analysis_03_hidden.py         # Hidden messages (acrostic)
├── analysis_04_entities.py       # Country & people mentions
├── analysis_05_anomaly.py        # Anomaly detection
├── analysis_06_market.py         # Posts vs S&P 500
├── analysis_07_signal_sequence.py # Signal sequences
├── analysis_08_backtest.py       # Strategy backtesting
├── analysis_09_combo_score.py    # Multi-signal scoring
├── analysis_10_code_change.py    # Signature change detection
├── analysis_11_brute_force.py    # Brute-force rule search
├── analysis_12_big_moves.py      # Big move prediction
├── data/                         # All data (100% open)
└── tests/                        # Test suite

Disclaimer

FOR RESEARCH AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

> This project is NOT financial advice. Do NOT make investment decisions based on these findings.

> Statistical Limitations:

- 31.5 million model combinations tested. Even with train/test validation, surviving models may include false positives due to multiple comparisons (data snooping bias).

- Past patterns do NOT guarantee future results. Correlation ≠ causation.

- Trump can change his communication patterns at any time.

> Legal: The authors assume NO liability for financial losses. Data sourced from public archives. Not affiliated with Truth Social, S&P Global, or any government entity. Not registered with any financial regulatory authority.

Also By Washin Mura | 和心村的其他專案 | 和心村の他プロジェクト

These are the tools we used to build Trump Code — and everything else.

這些是我們打造 Trump Code 和其他所有專案的工具。

Trump Codeを含む全プロジェクトを作るために使ったツールです。

| Project | EN | 中文 | 日本語 | | |---------|----|----|--------|---| | 5x-cto | Dev pipeline: 1 MAX + 1 Codex = 5x capacity | 開發流水線：一個人當五個用 | 開発パイプライン：1人で5人分 | 🚀 | | YES.md | AI governance: safety gates + evidence rules | AI 治理：安全閘門 + 證據規則 | AIガバナンス：安全ゲート＋証拠ルール | ✅ | | AI.MD | Convert CLAUDE.md to AI-native format | 蒸餾 CLAUDE.md 為 AI 原生格式 | CLAUDE.mdをAIネイティブ形式に | 📝 | | Washin Playbook | The full story: 7 chapters, zero coding | 完整故事：7 章，零程式背景 | 全記録：7章、プログラミング経験ゼロ | 📚 |